News & Views

I was reading one of the many arguments between Windows, OS X, and Linux fans online the other day and came to the realization that all of the current crop of desktop operating systems basically suck in one way or another. None of them are truly secure. None of them have file systems which are bullet proof. None of them can recover gracefully from power loss, hard drive failure, or other modern calamities. All of them suffer from hardware compatibility issues. None of them support multiple processor cores or even multiple threads of execution in any really meaningful way. They are all based on ideas, technologies, and even code bases that are literally decades old now.

Sure, most modern desktop operating systems have been updated regularly. Most have been patched up to support modern hardware as it appears. Most allow drivers to be created which give new hardware access to the system. Most have added on support for modern communication protocols and modern storage systems. But all of the current operating systems have had to add this functionality by tacking new code onto old sub-systems in ever more creative ways.

Perhaps it's time to cut our software links to the 70's and 80's and truly start over. Maybe it's time for a clean slate approach to a modern operating system. In a nutshell, we're still using 20th century desktop operating systems and it's time for a drastic change. Somebody needs to develop a completely new desktop operating system to take us well into the 21st century. It's time for a 21st century OS.

How would one start this process? What should it include?

I say, start with a clean slate. Cast a tiny kernel in stone. Make it read-only to everything. Hell, go one step further and put it in a quick-boot ROM. Boot speeds should never exceed 15 seconds. It's ridiculous to have 8 core processors running at 3+ GHz in modern computers and yet they take 2 full minutes to start up.

Next, virtualize and sandbox every non-kernel process in the entire system. Don't let ANYTHING at any level make changes to the core operating system. Ever. Also, don't let any process change the code or data of any other process. Both should just plain be forbidden and prevented. It should be impossible for little Bobby to do something to the computer that would require reinstalling or reconfiguring anything.

Weave in a secured version of a self-healing file system like ZFS from Sun. Build-in IPv6 with DES-level security from the ground up. Make file, hardware, system, and communications security a required part of the operating system rather than an optional add on. The only way somebody should be able to gain access to the computer is by having the security key in advance. In fact, maybe it's time to put our security keys into hardware, just like our house keys or car keys. Having your key should grant you secured access to your own system whether you are sitting in front of it or sitting at a public computer on the other side of the world.

Next, define a few very strict hardware device protocols, build in support for those few, and frankly don't allow any hardware which does not conform to the specification fully. The era of adding registry keys, installing drivers, and trying to get your devices to work is OVER. Develop one way to talk to devices and if a device doesn't follow the rules, just don't support it period. No drivers. No hacks. No way.

Make the OS both massively parallel and multi-threaded. Create tools which embrace and incorporate both ideas so our future generation 10,000 core CPUs just work from the start. Treat both, GPUs and CPUs as computing resources with a generic way of describing their capabilities to the operating system so that it can route tasks to whatever processor is available which can do the work. The kernel should simply use processors as processors. If you add another one, it should just use it.

Make the OS lean and fast. Make it boot in under 10 seconds, 15 maximum. Give the OS a hardware accelerated GUI and hardware accelerated media capabilities from the start. All media encoding and decoding should be open source and specified in hardware. Keep the GUI SIMPLE and intuitive. It shouldn't require tweaking to make things work. There should be no command line. There shouldn't NEED to be.

Make the OS dirt cheap or free by selling vendors a secure key, development kit, or license for developing compatible hardware. Maybe charge for software development kits. Either way, it needs to be free to end users and perhaps even free to computer makers for it to get adopted or offered as an option as quickly as possible. To ensure that the OS can be given away for free, avoid licensing old crap from the current crop of patent trolls who now sell 20th century OSes. There are great alternatives for everything, even media formats, from open, license-free sources.

Basically, write us a brand-new 21st century OS so we can all stop using the wide variety of crappy, antique, hacked-together, 20th century OSes we are currently stuck with. There really isn't a great OS to be found right now. They all have security issues. They all have hardware problems. They all have kernel panics, system crashes, malware, viruses, and more. A lot of people like me are ready for something totally different and brand new. It's time for a change.

Maybe there needs to be a 21sth Century OS X-Prize! Offer a million dollars to the first person, university, or company to develop an OS and C/C++ compiler which meets all the criteria I listed above. We badly need to find the Linus Torvalds, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Steve Wozniak of THIS generation. We're in a new century. We need the OS of the future and we need it now.

Labels: Apple, Microsoft, OSX, Predictions, Ubuntu, UI, User Interface, Virtual PC, Vista, Windows, Windows 7

The next version of the iPhone is receiving quite a "buzz" in the media. I think this is because it is rumored to finally fix some of the major omissions that have plagued the iPhone since version 1.0. Users are getting excited that the iPhone will finally live up to the promises made at the original introduction 2 years ago.

Anyone who reads this blog knows I've been quite vocal about the many shortcomings of the original iPhone. These opinions come from a person who has been using the iPhone as his only phone since day one of its original introduction. I like the phone a lot, but it always fell short of the Apple hype engine claims. It has never for a moment been a "revolutionary" communication device. Every feature the iPhone had at its introduction had been available for years from other smart phone makers. In fact, there were/still are a lot of basic features missing which those other phones have had for years. The primary difference was always the simple user interface. Apple made it easier to use those myriad functions. That's evolutionary progress, not revolutionary.

Fast forward two years from that over-hyped introduction and we're now looking forward to the release of the third version of the iPhone. It took two years, but it seems Apple has finally listened to owners and filled in the many missing features we've been requesting literally since day one. In my mind, this latest release finally makes the iPhone equal in features with all of the other smart phones on the market. The easy user interface pushes it over the top. If the rumored feature set of this third iPhone is true, I can finally put away my soap box and agree that this new iPhone will be the best smart phone out there. So, here are the details of what I have seen rumored. (mockup photo from http://www.iphone-ticker.de)

What can we reasonably expect in the third iPhone?

• Increased RAM size. The RAM used for executing programs in the current iPhone is 128MB. This is expected to be doubled to 256MB for the new version. That's a huge improvement.
• Increased performance. The main CPU in the new iPhone is expected to jump to 600MHz clock speed from 400MHz in the current version. There are also other optimizations which might give it an additional boost, so that the total performance gain will be more than 50%.
• Wider range of storage capacities. The new iPhone is expected to come in as many as 4 different storage capacities. They are 4GB, 8GB, 16GB, and 32GB. Folks like me with large audio libraries will finally be able to put their music collection on their iPhone! People who only use the phone for email and browsing will get a price break by buying the smallest capacity unit. Everyone wins.
• Cut and paste. This is a big one that has been missing and requested loudly since the beginning.
• MMS support. This is another one of the most requested missing features. Owners of the new iPhone will finally be able to exchange basic audio/video/photo messages with nearly every other cell phone owner out there. No more logging onto a web site to type in a bizarre code so you can view a message sent to you from a $29 phone. No more embarrassment that those $29 phones can do something your expensive phone can't do.
• Improved Bluetooth support. I think we'll finally see stereo headset support. I also think we'll see Bluetooth keyboard support and possibly Bluetooth printing. I think we'll likely also see tethering support with some artificial limitation attached. Probably the limitation will be that you pay extra for a tether-friendly data plan from AT&T.
• Video recording and simple editing. In order to fully-implement MMS, they needed to be able to record video. So, they wrapped this feature in a simple application to use any time.
• Audio recording. The same note applies for MMS audio recordings. They had to implement it anyway, so they made it available as a new application.
• Improved camera image quality. This comes in the form of better light sensitivity and auto focus functionality built-in. The camera will be less prone to image blur. I wonder if digital image stabilization isn't also an element of this equation. I'm betting on simple face recognition, as well.
• Improved camera resolution. This rumor is still the subject of debate. Many say the new camera will be 3.2MP. I'm not holding my breath on this one, but it does make sense. Frankly, if they just improve the quality of the images from the existing camera, that will go a long way toward making people happy.
• Digital compass. Being able to orient the device in 3D space will be a useful enhancement to GPS positioning abilities. The digital compass application looks pretty cool, too.
• Turn-by-turn navigation. With the digital compass added, all of the hardware is there to do real turn-by-turn navigation. If they use Google Maps, it should be fairly straightforward to implement this. I believe this rumor is true.
• Percentage indicator for battery life. This is a small thing that will be very handy. The existing indicator just isn't accurate enough to be useful. I really hope this one is true.
• Nike+ support and a built-in Nike+ application. This rumor looks like it may be true. I could easily see Nike making a deal with Apple to include it. It's a cool application and it could be a beneficial partnership - selling more product for both companies.
• Downloadable iTunes TV/Movies. This one is a tough call. On the one hand, you have AT&T whining about bandwidth usage. On the other, you have Apple trying to further pump up their highly-profitable iTunes sales. IF this happens, it will likely be limited to WiFi downloads only for a long time.
• Pseudo background application support. This will come in the form of push notifications being available to most applications. It will give applications the feel of background execution, without actually sucking up CPU and battery time. We'll have to wait and see how well this works in reality.
• Further enhancements to Exchange Server compatibility. By this, I mean slight tweaks, not drastic improvements. The iPhone will still lack the extensive configuration capabilities that the Blackberry enjoys, but for most people the iPhone will be more than adequate. Just don't try to change your auto-responder from your iPhone.
• Global search. This was another feature requested by many, but ignored by Steve Jobs. The iPhone owner will finally be able to do what Palm's have done for well over a decade - search through everything on the device from a single search box. It's about time.
• Positioning information will now be available within the browser, in the form of JavaScript classes. This will open up all kinds of cool online services based on where you are standing at that moment. Expect to hear about a lot of cool web sites which take advantage of this shortly after introduction. For example, you could watch your friends move around town in real time on a map at a social networking site. I think Google has already been working on exactly this type of thing.
• Apple logo that lights up. Seriously? Why waste the battery power? Perhaps they plan to simply let the LCD back light bleed through to the logo on the back, but it's supposedly a true rumor. We'll see.

What rumors are probably not true?

• Improved battery life. I'll believe this one when I see it. I don't see how they can add so much functionality, as well as new hardware, while reducing the battery load at the same time. They may claim longer battery life, but I don't think any of us will see it in real world usage. I'd be mostly happy if it just doesn't get any worse.
• Adobe Flash support. As much as people have been asking for this, I think Adobe would tell us if they were ready to introduce it. They haven't said a word. So, I don't think it's coming any time soon. It's a shame because so many web sites don't offer an alternative to their Flash menus. I'm sure not having Flash support will be the main thing I still complain about on this new iPhone.
• Apple TV functionality with HD video support. While I think they will take a stab at letting people download videos and TV to their iPhones using iTunes, I don't think the iPhone will support HD content. It's really pointless to do this until the display can at least come close to rendering it fully. I don't see HD or Apple TV functionality coming to the iPhone for at least a year, if not two.
• Built-in uploading of recorded videos to YouTube. I really think Apple only tolerates YouTube. If there is ANY built-in uploading of videos, it will probably be set to work exclusively with Apple's own (lame) online service. Apple is very inbred when it comes to forcing its products to only work with its services. I do think this ability will appear on the iPhone, just not from Apple.
• HD or FM radio receiver. I can't imagine Apple letting people listen to the radio instead of forcing them to buy songs from iTunes.
• Matte black and matte white finishes. Apple has always been tilted toward glossy and shiny, so I can't imagine they would offer anything in a matte finish. Then again, this is a phone. Maybe they will listen to the complaints of users about scratches and fingerprints and coat it with a protective finish of some sort. We can hope, but I'm not very optimistic about this one.
• Enhanced "super" 3G support. Some are calling it 3.5G+ or 3.75G. I don't think it will make it into this generation of iPhone, but all bets are off on the next version. AT&T is finally beefing up their high speed cellular support and the future looks brighter than it ever has. Now, if only we could get them to lighten up on bandwidth restrictions, we might see mobile to mobile video chat (which has existed forever in the Orient) in our lifetimes. Our communications systems in this country are so primitive in comparison to the rest of the world. It's sad, really.

What rumors are definitely not true?

• Full iChat support integrated. Sure this would be nice, but I doubt we'll see it anytime soon. AT&T has us all by the short hairs when it comes to guarding their bandwidth.
• WiFi draft N support. I don't believe we'll see this. They have only recently embraced draft N support in their desktops and laptops. I'm sure they don't think it's important enough for the iPhone.
• Built-in FM transmitter. Not likely either. There isn't enough space inside the device and it would eat up the battery quicker.
• Front facing camera for video chatting. Not happening because of bandwidth limitations set by AT&T. Maybe in two years, but no way it's happening in this version.
• OLED screen. That would push the price too high and this is one of their few devices where Apple grudgingly acknowledges that price is somewhat important. Until OLEDs are cheaper and being manufactured in sufficient quantities, we won't see them on iPhones. It just isn't realistic. We might see LED backlighting for the LCD display, though. That, I could see happening.
• Any drastic changes to the form factor. The 3rd iPhone will only have minor cosmetic tweaks if anything. It will retain the same basic layout, shape, and dimensions as prior versions.
• Carbon fiber casing. I can't see anyone using carbon fiber for a telephone casing. It is too brittle. The first drop would bust it open. I think the new iPhone will use the same plastic as the 3G with little change to anything.
• Editing of Word and Excel files. With third parties jumping in to fill this void, I don't see Apple wasting the resources to add this ability. There are already a couple of good applications for this task available from iTunes, so they'll make their money that way.

When will we see the new iPhone?

Some of the features mentioned above will appear in version 3.0 of the operating system, which is supposed to be introduced for existing iPhones on June 8, 2009. There are rumors that this upgrade will be sold, not free. Because some of the functions depend on new hardware, users of older iPhones simply won't see some of the new features.

The new iPhone device will appear over a month later, on July 17th, 2009. I'm sure we'll be able to tell what hardware/software made the final cut during the weeks between those two dates. I expect to hear about a lot of first generation iPhone owners finally trading in their phones once the new one hits the shelves. I'm certainly in that category.

Yes, it's a great update. The feature set will finally be mostly complete. But before you start thinking I'm completely content with the rumored abilities of this new iPhone, let me reassure you with the following section:

What would I like to see added next?

• Flash support is the one blindingly obvious item which needs to happen sooner rather than later. Flash may not be an open standard, but it is a de facto standard used on a large number of commercial web sites. Deal with it Apple! Help Adobe create it.
• LED backlighting on the display. It's brighter for sunny days and displays much better color. Even OLED wouldn't be a big improvement if they put LED backlighting on the display.
• WiFi draft N. If they are going to keep limiting large downloads to WiFi only, at least give us decent speed on the WiFi.
• Increased display resolution - but only if it doesn't make everything harder to read for those of us who are getting old. In other words, give us a way to keep the font sizes big enough to see while displaying images or video at the increased resolution.
• Higher resolution camera - but only if the picture quality doesn't suffer in the process. More pixels are useless if the picture is blurry.
• Switch-able LED lighting for video and photo recording in darkened rooms like clubs or restaurants.
• HD video playback. Sure, 720p would be the logical first step, but eventually I'd like to see full 1080p output. Of course, this is probably a long-term goal. More and more hotel rooms have flat panels with HDMI connections. Just add a micro-HDMI port and let me watch my iPhone videos on my hotel room TV in full high definition. Let me display presentations on conference room flat panels, too. Is that a presentation in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?
• An SD or even micro SD expansion slot. Sometimes you just want more space for your stuff. Downloading videos will make that even more critical.
• A user-replaceable battery. Even if it's just a back that opens more easily and a battery cable which unplugs, make it replaceable by the end user damn it. NOBODY wants to be without their phone while it gets shipped in for a new battery to be installed. That's retarded.
• Add the ability to edit calendar events, alarms, and contacts from inside iTunes. This is another thing Palm's have had for over a decade. Get with the program Apple.
• Add the ability to drag songs or albums onto your iPhone without creating a damned play list first. Sometimes I just want the music on there to listen to on a whim. I don't need it to be part of a play list.

Yes, you're right. I'm a picky bloke who can always come up with a wish list for any device. The new iPhone will absolutely be a big improvement over previous generations. In fact, if the rumors are true, this could be the best phone out there. But there is always room for improvement.

Summing it up.

In a nutshell, the 3rd iPhone version looks like it will finally fulfill the promise of the original iPhone introduction two years ago. The wide variety of feature shortcomings which held the device back from widespread acceptance will finally be addressed. With these feature and hardware additions, the feature set required to call itself a modern smart phone will finally be nearly complete. Unlike the 3G introduction, which only increased download speed and added a GPS radio, this third version looks like the real "second coming" of the iPhone. It actually looks to be an upgrade worth buying for those of us with first generation iPhones. I'm excited to see how the rumors pan out.

I fully expect iPhone 3 will take off like a rocket after introduction. By this time next year, I'm predicting the already large installed base of iPhones will have tripled and Apple will be doing quite well, indeed, thanks to iPhone and iTunes sales. Currently, if you remove the iPhone, iPod Touch, and their associated iTunes sales increases from Apple's financial numbers, Apple would have done as poorly as the rest of the tech sector or worse. Instead, they have been relatively untouched by the floundering economy. This new version of the iPhone looks like it will further boost Apple's numbers to amazing levels of health. If you have Apple stock, hold onto it. The iPhone's future looks very bright.

Labels: Apple, iPhone, Music, Opinions, OSX, Predictions, UI, User Interface

Hybrids are currently about 1% of the total market in the U.S. I've seen predictions that say hybrids will reach about 10% within 10 years. I personally don't agree with those predictions. In fact, I see hybrids being completely replaced by Extended Range Electric Vehicles (X-REVs) within that same time period. Let me explain why.

First, why do we need to switch from gasoline at all? Most experts will agree that in the long term, we are headed for purely electric drive cars. One big reason is, we have a limited supply of petroleum and it is used in MANY other products (plastics, for example) which we really need to keep making because we don't have good replacements. Another reason is the fact that burning petroleum is just a horrible thing to do to the planet we live on. Plus, electricity can (and should) be generated from renewable sources. The bottom line is, switching to electric drive for our vehicles is really an eventuality, not simply a possibility.

So, let's just agree we're eventually headed for purely electric vehicles. Why can't we just start switching now and get it over with? Why not make all new cars electric? Well, we can't. The reason is simple. The technology just isn't there, and won't be for a very long time to come.

Sure, we have decent electric motors already. In fact, electric motors are really powerful and produce instantaneous, flat, and extreme levels of torque. Freight trains have been pulled by electric motors running off diesel generators for many years. One of the fastest and most responsive cars on the market is a pure electric vehicle called the Tesla Roadster. It goes from 0-60 in 3.9 seconds. The electric motor is also much more energy efficient than the gasoline engine. More of the energy consumed actually makes it to the pavement. You get more power for less energy. The bottom line is, the electric motor is really great for driving the wheels on a car.

The reason we can't all switch to electric cars now is the batteries. While every other technology has advanced very quickly, batteries have proceeded at a virtual snail's pace. Batteries have always been and still are a horrible way to store energy. You get far less out than you put in. Further, there is only so much space available for batteries in a vehicle, in order to still leave room for passengers and their stuff.

Unfortunately, filling the available space with even our best current battery technology stores only enough energy to take a car about 40-60 miles on a charge. If you have a 20 mile commute, one way, that means you MUST remember to plug in your car every single night or it will be dead and useless in the morning. Plus, our current battery technology generates a lot of heat (wasted energy) and takes much too long to charge after it is drained.

Then there is the fact that almost nobody wants a purely electric car. Yeah, I said it. I'm sure I'll hear from the few who NEVER take a trip longer than 20 miles, and who have the discipline to plug it in every night, but the vast majority of us aren't like those people. We are forgetful people who like flexibility and dependability because our lives are chaos and our transportation needs change daily.

The hard reality is, mass acceptance of purely electric vehicles is a LONG way off. Maybe 30 years or more. Why? Two reasons - People are far more afraid of their batteries going dead than they ever were of running out of gas. This because a battery recharge takes HOURS of sitting at a few specific locations and filling the tank takes minutes at tons of convenient locations. What if you forget to plug your car in overnight? You have no car. That's unacceptable.

People also want to be able to take long driving trips without stopping for many hours of recharge sessions every 40 miles. You can't do that with current purely electric cars, and it doesn't look like that level of technology is going to appear for a very long time. Purely electric vehicles will not become the norm until the battery technology allows people to drive all day (or commute all week), only stopping for quickie food, fuel, and restroom breaks. People can do that now with gasoline cars. They won't give it up without a fight.

Hybrids are really the first of two steps needed to get us from petroleum to electric. Hybrids still drive the wheels with a gasoline motor and use the electric motor as a performance "boost" when needed. For this reason, they only need a small amount of battery capacity. Because they still use a gasoline engine as the primary motive power, they operate and refuel just like the cars people use now. They require no change in behavior.

I believe the next step in this evolution is extended range electric vehicles (X-REVs). In an X-REV, the small gasoline motor always idles. It only drives a generator. The gas generator basically charges the batteries constantly in what is essentially an electric car. The X-REV's wheels are driven by an electric motor. There is no kinetic connection at all between the gas motor and the wheels. Yes, you can still plug X-REVs in every night to charge it and save a fortune on fuel, but it won't make the car unusable if you forget occasionally.

That's really a key feature. X-REVs are the next step because they provide that one critical ability. Your battery can run out after 40 miles and you can keep on driving for as long as your conventional fuel allows - 300 miles or even more. Fill your tank whenever it's low and keep driving. You could forget to plug it in half the time and still get to work  every day just fine. That's peace of mind people absolutely need when making the transition.

Plus, swapping to better batteries as technology progresses will also improve your fuel savings allowing you to travel further before using any gas at all. If replacement batteries get good enough sooner than expected, you might eventually stop putting gas into the car at all. That makes it the perfect transition vehicle. You can slowly shift into the habit of charging your car regularly without being severely punished if you forget.

Plus, the conventional fuel used to extend the range could be nearly anything, from gasoline, to compressed natural gas, to hydrogen or diesel. Anything that can run the generator, works. In fact, if the manufacturers design the generator and fuel storage in a modular way, the fuel you use to extend the range could even change over the years without replacing your vehicle. This is yet another advantage.

Imagine when gasoline hits $10 a gallon in 5 years. You simply pop in a compressed natural gas (CNG) generator module which you refill from a compressor installed in your garage. Hook the compressor to your natural gas line and bingo, you can fill your own tank at home. If you are running low, you could use the CNG compressors at friends' or relatives' houses. Even gas stations would start installing CNG pumps.

Or imagine something drastic happens which suddenly cuts off our oil supply. (Can you say "embargo?") If the only fuel available is an electrical outlet and you are one of the smart ones who drives an X-REV, you can still use your car for 40 miles a day while all those gasoline cars sit around useless or wait in long lines for gasoline. You win!

In fact, if we develop future-fuel generators which put out more energy than needed by the electric drive motor, you wouldn't even need the batteries. That would mean your X-REV is suddenly a fully electric car with minimal modification. Replace the generator "module" and it's an electric car. Keep the car you love longer and just swap out one module.

Heck, imagine someday eventually putting in a tiny nuclear generator that would allow you to drive non-stop for 5,000 years without ever recharging. You could drive it until it is a pile of dust and never refuel again. At the rate we're going with batteries we might have tiny reactors long before we have decent batteries, anyway. Even glacial-paced solar technology is progressing faster than batteries and that's just plain sad.

So, for long-term flexibility and dependability, the X-REV would be the perfect choice as our long term transition vehicle to get us off our addiction to oil and move us toward an electric future. In an oil crisis, X-REVs could save us. If fuel technology changes quickly, they could save us. If we forget to plug it in, they could save us. For those long drives to grandma's house, they could save us. X-REVs are the best of all worlds. So in my opinion, they really should replace hybrids as the car of choice while we wait for the distant promise of purely electric vehicles. They deliver the benefits of electric for your daily commute while giving you the flexibility of gasoline cars for any other situation that comes up.

If you want to see what I'm talking about, the Chevy Volt is the first shining star in what I hope will be a very bright future for X-REVs. "TIME.com" was very impressed with this technology. Personally, I can't wait to see what other car companies come out with to compete with the Volt. If the development rumors are true, our automotive future looks brighter than ever. In these times of rampant bad news, it's nice to realize we might have a better future just around the bend.

Labels: automobiles, Climage Change, Energy, Environment, Opinions, Predictions

Google recently swung a deal where old orphaned works would be scanned onto its servers and made accessible via the Internet. This could make millions of previously out-of-print works instantly accessible to the entire world via web browsers. The works would comprise every type of creative work man produces, from the written word to recordings and films. This may not sound like an Earth-shaking deal to many, but it stirred up an old dream I had about the future of human knowledge on planet Earth.

In the future, I always saw the world using NetSlates. What is a NetSlate? Imagine this. Your personal NetSlate can run for weeks without charging. It has virtually unlimited bandwidth for displaying any type of media. The connection is bi-directional allowing interaction between an unlimited number of these devices in real-time. It has an ultra-high resolution, wide-color gamut display. It has incredible audio capabilities built-in, too. Perhaps it can even project full-color imagery or interfaces in 3 dimensions when it lies flat on a table surface. The device is incredibly thin, perhaps even flexible and weighs next-to-nothing.

Sounds great right? It's like a cross between the most powerful supercomputers, the best graphics workstations, and the lightest, thinnest, tablet PC's available today. Think nuclear-powered Kindle on steroids. Also, think unlimited cheap wireless bandwidth. Ok got the picture?

Now, imagine literally everyone can own a NetSlate because they are dirt cheap. In fact, they're free in many cases because advertisers give ad-supported versions away constantly. They all display basically the same information and media. Our NetSlates are totally compatible with one another because they all feed from open format, world-standard files stored on insanely fast servers connected to the wireless super Internet of the future. This is an idealist future I've babbled on about for a couple of decades to my wife, family, and friends (started thinking about this device back in the pre-WWW "CompuServe" days). I believe this is where we are finally headed now.

For proof, simply put that Google media-scanning deal in the early development context of that not-too-distant future vision of NetSlates. Everyone owns a NetSlate and all the information ever created by mankind is available instantly to all  of us. These early scanning efforts and other efforts by Google to put literally everything online are the baby steps needed to reach that admittedly idealistic NetSlate future.

In fact, the Amazon Kindle could be seen as another of those baby steps toward ubiquitous access to knowledge and the ideal of a futuristic NetSlate. Amazon has 250,000 publications available for the Kindle. Imagine if the device were also a high-speed, non-DRM, unlimited-bandwidth, browsing device pointed directly at Google's scanned-information storehouses. Adding millions more creative works which are currently out of print would make the Kindle vastly more useful than it already is. If Google and Amazon were to combine their future efforts and stick to open worldwide standards, the significance of their separate baby steps would become even more important toward the long-term future of human knowledge.

Imagine a future where bulky books, magazines, cables, and plastic discs are replaced by slim personal devices with always-on, unlimited, wireless connections to limitless media and information. Imagine there literally being no limitations to the information you could explore on your device. The barriers between us would fade as we all gain equal access to all knowledge and information.  Now, that's an exciting future, right? We will absolutely have the technology to do all of this in the not-too-distant future.

Unfortunately, my NetSlate dream will likely never fully happen. Why not? Didn't I just say we'll have the technology? Yes, I did. But technology won't be the limiting aspect of this ideal future. The NetSlate future won't happen because we'll never be given access to the total of human knowledge, no matter how far technology progresses. Knowledge is power, so it just won't happen.

The rich and powerful control the masses by throttling information. They monitor and control the sources, the quantity, the quality, and the accessibility of all information and that is largely how they maintain their power over the middle and lower classes who far out-number them. The NSA and HSA now routinely monitor all information flow, thanks to the laws passed by the scared old men sitting in Congress. Their regular efforts to regulate the Internet are another demonstration. If literally everyone had access to all human knowledge, the most powerful would lose one of their best tools in controlling us. So they will do their best to prevent this ideal future from ever happening. Just watch the news and you'll see it.

For example, those same scared old men in Congress created laws which legalize the extortion of children and grandmothers by rich media companies (like Sony, EMI, Universal, Warner, Disney, Viacom, and others). Those rich media companies now get insane amounts of control over what we do with the products we purchase from them. They take gestapo-like actions against completely innocent individuals and then are not held accountable for their extortion attempts. They aren't even required to provide proof that a law was broken before they begin their extortion and harassment process. In this way, they have more power than the local police.

These rich media companies amuse themselves by bankrupting poor college students who didn't cost them a dime of profit because they couldn't afford the media product to begin with. This tactic often takes a potential college graduate, who would have later purchased products from them for decades, bankrupts them, and puts them out on the street. So, in place of a high-earning college graduate, the rich media companies create a college dropout who hates them and will never purchase another product from them. Why would these media companies do something so stupid? It's all about control. They are blinded by their hunger for power and control, so they shoot themselves in the foot over and over.

Yes, the technology will someday exist to create NetSlates we can all afford. The technology will someday exist to create high-bandwidth wireless connections for those NetSlates which will allow all of us equal access to vast stores of online information. The question is: What information will be available to us when that full-blown technology finally arrives? That's where the bright future of the "NetSlates ideology" falls apart.

It will be the rich and powerful who will kill my dream of "widespread access to all knowledge via NetSlates." It will be the evil efforts of greedy media companies which will kill our future ubiquitous wireless knowledge and media access. Yes, we may get some useful subset of my NetSlate dream, but we will never realize its full-blown potential. We will never be allowed full access to all of human knowledge and creative works. That is the bittersweet reality we live in. Those in power will always control our access.

Labels: Congress, DMCA, EFF, Fair Use, MPAA, Music, Opinions, Predictions, PRO IP, RIAA, UI, User Interface

I’ve been hearing a lot of rumors about Apple possibly introducing a netbook in 2009. After listening to all of the rumors and putting a little intuition and imagination to work, I’ve come up with what I think may be part of that Apple netbook package. I’ll go through the components one by one. (mockup photo by artist Edwin Tofslie)

The GPU: The widely accepted rumor is that the newly-released Imagination Technologies four core PowerVR GPU will be used in the next iPhone. I believe it may actually be targeted at an Apple netbook in order to drive a significantly larger display than what is in the iPhone and iPod Touch while maintaining very low power drain. Plus, it will have plenty of horsepower to view HD iTunes content when being used as a multimedia device.

The CPU: ARM Cortex A9. Again, the chip is something everyone else is targeting as an iPhone candidate. I believe it is headed for an Apple netbook. I believe Apple wants to squeeze amazing battery life from a slim tablet-style netbook and this multi-core chip is powerful enough to do the job while maintaining much better energy efficiency than an Intel Atom.

The OS: Ok, it is a given that it will be OS X based, but I believe it will be a scaled-up version of the iPhone operating system rather than a scaled-down version of the desktop OS. The new OS will possibly be a superset of firmware 3.0. It may even run most of the same applications, considering the CPU and GPU being used. It may have a launcher screen similar to the iPhone/iPod Touch, as well.

The SCREEN: I believe it will be a full-screen multi-touch device, just like the iPhone and iPod Touch, only larger. It may be about the same thickness, while being wider and longer. The keyboard will be software-based with new support for copy/paste and other functions introduced in firmware 3.0. The screen will likely be in the 7-9 inch range with high DPI rating for beautiful images and multimedia content. It won’t be much larger, because thumb typing on a larger screen in landscape mode would prevent you from reaching the middle keys with your thumbs.

The AUDIO: It will have stereo speakers, but primarily be intended for use with headphones or audio out. It will also have a built-in microphone for use with iChat and when using the device as a speakerphone.

The VIDEO: Like the next generation iPhone coming in June, it will have a forward-facing camera hidden behind the screen for use with iChat. It will be able to do high-resolution video chat over a wireless network or lower-resolution video chat over 3G. It will also provide a mini Display Port interface.

The NETWORKING: This machine will have built-in wireless-N networking as well as a built-in, always-on 3G voice and data connection through another Apple contract with ATT.

The BATTERY: Following the trend in all Apple devices, it will not be user swappable. I feel like Apple will shoot for 8+ hours of battery life. It will be lithium-ion based rather than using the newer silver-zinc technology.

The STORAGE: It will probably have 32 GB of memory/storage, like the highest-end iPhone. Much to the irritation of many folks, it may not include USB ports. Their reasoning for not including it will be that the device would be open to easier cracking of the 3G network link if they included USB ports. If you see USB ports, you probably won’t see built-in 3G. Either that, or the 3G won’t be tied to a single vendor.

The REST: Also included will be an accelerometer, GPS, and ambient light sensors. The App Store and iTunes Store will be there. It will sync with Mobile Me. A cloud-based set of simple productivity and media applications will also be included, perhaps iLife Mobile.

The PRICE: This is where folks will likely be most disappointed. I don’t see Apple introducing this machine for any less than $799. It may even be as high as $1199. The large capacitive touch screen, multi-core processors, and lithium-ion battery will keep the price higher than most people want to pay for a netbook. Some will buy it anyway, because it will look great and be very easy to use.

I see this device being called something like “iPad,” “iTouch,” or perhaps “iPad Touch” and being available in late summer for their back-to-school sales push. You heard it here first.

Labels: Apple, iPhone, Opinions, OSX, Predictions, UI, User Interface

1. In 2018, Intel introduces the first 128 core desktop processors using the new VCore 256 bit low power architecture based on an 18nm chip fabrication process. The processor has 32 MB of L2 cache per core and starts at 2.4 GHz. Pricing starts at $210 each in lots of 1,000.

2. In 2018, mainstream games and applications finally begin to fully-utilize 4 of the CPU cores and set their sights on using 8 cores in another decade.

3. In 2018, despite lack of progress on CPU utilization, games now routinely require graphic cards with at least 4096 cores, 64 GB of RAM, their own external power supplies, refrigerant cooling systems, and special purpose optical bus connections. Users complain about the extreme prices, and the massive noise the compressors make while the units are running. They also complain about the 40% rise in their electric bills, and lack of widespread game support, but they keep buying the new cards because the hardware demonstration animations look so cool. Quake 6 now routinely runs at over 2,000 FPS in photo-realistic mode but the new QED Crystalline-Lattice displays still only update at 60 Hz.

4. The Torvalds Foundation announces core-level native support for the new 256 bit CPUs in it's next kernel release. Linux users worldwide immediately begin to argue publicly about which of the approximately 342,000 distributions will make the best use of this new kernel.

5. Apple announces a 256 bit native version of OS XV with full support for up to 8192 cores and warns of future plans to phase out 128 bit support in the next full point release. Their share of the installed base in the US reaches 20%. Their worldwide share remains steady at 9% as Ubuntu Peter Piper gains even more ground in the world PC market.

6. Microsoft proudly announces that the 64 bit version of the upcoming Windows X (10) will finally be the default version installed on all new systems.  Then, they quietly announce they will continue to maintain a 32 bit version for volume corporate customers still using 30 year old custom applications. When asked if they have future plans to support 128 bit or the newest 256 bit CPUs, they say, "we don't comment on future development plans." Huge corporations applaud the backward compatibility of the available 32 bit version and promptly ignore the 64 bit version. Consumers, 85% of whom now have 128 bit CPUs and 64-256 GB of RAM in their PCs, again consider the burning question of why they still use Windows after nearly half a century of Microsoft's OS trailing new technology by years.

7. Apple introduces the iScape(tm) Virtual Landscape Projection system. It uses technology licensed from recently-purchased Imax to project realistic environments in three dimensions in your living room. It allows you to listen to music from your iTunes library while lying in a garden meadow on a mountainside in Switzerland. It allows you to dance to techno in a club in Miami, or sit at the 50 yard line every time your favorite team plays football. Best of all, it looks like a shiny aluminum modern art sculpture sitting in the middle of your living room.

8. The first molecular duplication of a living organism is performed in a laboratory in Europe. Using direct atomic manipulation, scientists are able to assemble the basic molecular building blocks to perfectly duplicate a single-celled organism. When it is finished, it immediately springs to life causing scientific celebration as well as incredible philosophical and religious controversy. Two weeks later, the lead scientist for the project is bludgeoned to death with a 5 iron on live TV by a frenzied Christian minister screaming about the sanctity of life.

9. Construction is proceeding briskly in New Manhattan, NJ. Many corporations who once operated in the now-flooded city of Manhattan are finally reopening in their new facilities. The huge number of ex-Floridians who were displaced as most of the state was overrun by the rising water tables are finally getting settled into their new cities nationwide. A steady stream of hurricanes now runs non-stop throughout the entire year with the largest covering an area roughly half the size of the U.S.

10. After decades of battling earthquakes, mudslides, and quickly-rising sea levels, ironic horror grips the nation as Malibu is completely destroyed on live TV by the first category 5 Pacific hurricane to hit the greater Los Angeles area. It results in the deaths of thousands of has-been movie stars, causes $240 billion in property damage, and results in the total collapse of the plastic surgery market in California. Hollywood Squares goes off the air for 6 months as they scramble to find stars to fill all of the empty squares. In other news, the city of Toronto is renamed "New Hollywood" by the Canadian government and yet another horribly stupid remake of "Knight Rider" appears on TV.

11. After their grandchildren show them videos on YouTube showing that Antarctica is now covered with mud instead of ice, the US Congress spends 8 months carefully creating legislation to begin funding a 20 year study to see if global climate change might be a real problem they need to address someday. Unfortunately, they tack on $800 billion in unrelated pet project spending causing it to be vetoed when it reaches the White House. As a result, the government still does nothing and the coastlines continue to disappear under rising sea levels. Poor folks along the recently-created Southern Gulf Coast of Georgia begin to make plans to move further inland to reach higher ground.

12. The first general purpose android household servants begin to appear from several manufacturers. They cost $130,000-$200,000 each initially, but the wealthy buy them like crazy so they can fire their illegal-alien housekeepers and nannies who they believe are stealing from them. Japanese toy companies release simplified high-impact plastic versions a year later for $129.95 and even cheaper copies from Taiwan appear on eBay for as little as $34.95.

13. In 2012, an alien race detected the small space/time distortions we were creating with our Large Hadron Collider experiments and decided we were finally advanced enough to announce their presence to our world. After first contact was made in late 2012, our governments spent the next 6 years bickering over who should represent the world when negotiating treaties and technology-exchange agreements. No significant progress was made during the previous 6 years, so the visitors decide to leave in disgust partway through 2018. A significant number of our most intelligent people choose to go with them, setting back most active research projects on Earth by several decades and causing a technological Dark Age to arrive.

14. George Foreman releases an updated version of his grill which stands completely vertical while cooking, uses high-tech, instant-on, ceramic elements to cook the meat evenly, and has a touch screen interface which can also browse the Internet. The stainless steel version sells like crazy at $499.

15. The PlayStation 6 is announced in time for Christmas. It will sell for $1299. The lack of advance development units for game companies means it will have zero software available for at least 18 months after launch. But the specs look amazing on paper, so kids start begging their parents to buy one anyway.

16. Bose releases the first ZERO speaker surround sound system which uses high energy electromagnetic pulses to scramble your brain into thinking you are hearing sound all around you. In response to widespread concern about potential brain damage, Bose later adds a filter to prevent the playing of German opera and anything by the Jonas Brothers.

17. The electoral college is finally eliminated in 2017 when, after a record election turnout in November 2016, 87% of the population votes for one candidate and the other candidate somehow still becomes President. After careful thought about ways they could improve on our current election system, it is replaced by Girl Scouts selling raffle tickets for a random drawing with the Presidency as the prize. The move is applauded as an infinitely more accurate representation of the will of the people than the electoral college.

18. The host of the Today Show suddenly pops into another dimension in mid-sentence during a special live broadcast causing quantum theorists to run through offices all over the world yelling, "I told everyone that could happen!" The host later reappears in a Turkish bath house holding a potted plant and finishes his sentence.

19. The NSA, while routinely monitoring the communications of all Americans, learns that the Democratic Senator from California is about to propose legislation outlawing their covert activities against Americans. The next morning, the Senator's car coincidentally explodes as he is driving to work. The NSA quickly releases "evidence" that terrorists were to blame and calls for additional powers to help them fight terrorism. There is public outcry about the country not being safe enough and the President, at the urging of Congress, signs an executive order allowing the NSA to implant chips in all Americans' brains which allow them to monitor our thoughts.

20. The Coca Cola Bottling Company spends 173 million dollars developing and advertising a new flavor of Coke called Coke Ultimate. The public promptly  ignores it and continues drinking the same old Coke they've always been drinking.

Those are just a few of my predictions for the next decade. I hope you enjoyed them.

Labels: Opinions, Predictions